Moving into the 24hr layover

As the night descends and the lead pack moves toward McGrath mushers will be starting to think about their 24hr layovers.  The lead pack is made up of Sabestian S., Hugh Neff, and Aaron Burmiester of all people, closely followed by Paul G., and about 12 miles back Lance Mackey and Jeff King.

Once these guys take their layover we will know exactly who is leading.  King and Mackey may over take Sabetian based on start time differentials!  But Neff and Burmiester will get further ahead.

In anycase, it seems like based on when, and for how long, these guys last rested that Burmiester and Neff are probaly headed to a 24hr in McGrath or Tokotna.  While Sabestian might be able to push on to Ophir of even Iditarod.  This is based on the fact that they all rested about the same time in Nik. but only sabestian took a rest in the Burn.  The others ran straight through from Rohn.  That tells me they owe their dogs a long rest while Sabestian could keep going.  

 On the other hand, it might not make sense for Sabestian to break trail while these guys rest.  The trail is slow right now and if it gets cold while Sabastian is running and those other guys are resting the trail will set up and get faster.  Meaning that Neff and Burmiester would then have a MUCH faster trail over the same distance that Sabestian went slow- net result they will get to the same place a lot quicker!

as for Mackey and King and the rest of the group right behind... well... they seem to be behind by an hour or so- which is still under a run/rest cycle.  And that means if they have a strong enough dog team they could short one rest later in the race and be right in there for the win!  Which is exactly how it seems Sabestian won the Quest just a few short weeks ago!

So all in all I think there are still about 20 teams in the running for a win based on times.  Maybe 10 of those teams have mushers that would know how to pull it off!  Which makes this one of the closest Iditarods in some years!

And let's not forget about Martin Buser- multi-time winner and owner of the fastest iditarod ever- sitting back a few hours stacking up rest that just might lead to a come from behind win in NOME!